Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico is one of the most exciting matchups of UFC 319, an event ngaking place at Chicago’s United Center on Saturday, August 16Image Source: Shutterstock.com

Lerone Murphy is one of only seven ranked UFC fighters who are still without a single career loss. The bad news for him is that, according to UFC 319 odds, his undefeated run will come to an end on August 16. Aaron Pico, who’s making his debut in Dana White’s organization, is seen as a -155 favorite.

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Odds

Moneyline	Odds
Lerone Murphy	+135
Aaron Pico	-155

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: United Center in Chicago, Illinois
• Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: PPV

Reasons Why UFC 319 Odds Suggest Lerone Murphy Will Lose

The No. 1 reason why bookmakers think Lerone Murphy will suffer his first-ever loss on August 16 is that he’s sort of a one-trick pony. This guy is all about striking, with his grappling and wrestling skills being questionable. 

He’s 16-0-1 overall with seven wins by KO/TKO and nine by decision. His ngakedown defense is 52%, but it would’ve been even lower had he fought more wrestlers.

Most of his previous UFC opponents were those who put striking first. However, he did fight a couple of ngakedown experts, like Zubaira Tukhugov, who landed 6 TDs against him. Makwan Amirkhani and Gabriel Santos landed five each, while in Murphy’s most recent fight, Josh Emmett took him down four times.

The reason why these stats should worry Murphy’s fans a lot is that on August 16, he’s locking horns with one of the best wrestlers in the MMA universe.

Reasons Why Aaron Pico Should Be Your UFC 319 Pick

Aaron Pico is a former U17 World champion in freestyle wrestling, who served as an alternate for Team USA at the 2016 Olympics. His MMA career started in 2017 with a loss at Bellator 180. However, he then went on to win 13 fights and lose another three before catching the eyes of Dana White & Co.

Khamzat Chimaev and Aaron Pico putting in work together ahead of their battles at #UFC319 💥👊 Relentless grind, same mission.

(via @treigning_lab ) pic.twitter.com/7lJK0CwKmI

— Red Corner MMA (@RedCorner_MMA) August 5, 2025

His UFC debut will happen on August 13 against a very tricky opponent. While Murphy is at least one level above him when striking is concerned, no one can deny that Pico packs a lot of power in his punches and kicks. This explains why nine of his 13 wins happened by KO/TKO.

This guy’s favorite method is ground-and-pound, which is what he seems to have in plan for his promotional debut.

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Prediction

Murphy is a hell of a striker, but if he fails to knock Pico out quickly, he might get in trouble. If the former Bellator star lands a ngakedown, it could be game over for Murphy. The bad news for him is that we think that’s precisely what will happen.

Pick: Aaron Pico by KO/TKO